Wake Forest has the inside track in Charlotte today. I can confirm multiple Mississippi State scholarship players have opted out of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, and late depth chart changes are real. That shift puts the edge on the Demon Deacons side as kickoff nears, and it changes how this game will be played.
What I am hearing in Charlotte
Wake Forest arrived settled and focused. The staff is not juggling last minute absences. Mississippi State is. Several Bulldogs who played starter level snaps are out, including key contributors on offense and in the secondary. That forces younger players into high leverage roles against a timing based attack that punishes mistakes.
Wake’s plan is steady. Expect early tempo, heavy formation variation, and the familiar slow mesh rhythm that coach Dave Clawson has weaponized for years. With Mississippi State light on experience at the second and third levels, Wake will test eye discipline and leverage from the first series.
Mississippi State’s updated travel roster trims veteran depth, especially in coverage and perimeter force. The final inactive list will shape kickoff personnel groupings.
How the matchup shifts
The slow mesh is patient and stubborn. It pulls linebackers forward, then throws behind them. It asks safeties to choose, then punishes the wrong step. Against a defense short on reps together, those small errors turn into chains moving gains.
Mississippi State still has SEC size up front. That can wreck plans if it wins early downs. But without its normal rotation outside and at nickel, stress points show up on third and medium. Wake designs to that area of the field. The Deacs will live with five yard hitches and option routes, then take a deep shot when the corner squats.
- Third down efficiency will decide pace and field position.
- Explosive plays off play action are Wake’s best path to a cushion.
- Mississippi State needs early sacks to stay ahead of the sticks.
- Special teams hidden yards could swing a one score finish.
Numbers and the winning script
I track my own projection based on personnel, efficiency, and situational value. With today’s attrition, my model leans Wake Forest by a field goal in a low to mid scoring game. The market has inched toward Wake through the morning and the total has softened. That reflects respect for the Bulldogs front and caution about their offensive continuity.
The script that gets Wake home is clear. Protect the ball. Avoid negative plays on first down. Make Mississippi State throw on long fields. The script that brings the Bulldogs back is even simpler. Win on the edges in the run game, hit a couple shot plays against single coverage, and force a short field with a takeaway.
If this starts tight, watch second quarter drives. Wake often finds its rhythm late in the half, then doubles with the first drive after halftime.
Players and pivots to watch
Wake’s quarterback does not need to be a hero, just calm. The mesh takes care of matchups if the ball comes out on time. The slot is where separation lives in this system, and Mississippi State’s thinned nickel room will be stressed by option routes and pick concepts. Expect Wake to use bunch sets and motion to create free releases.
On defense, the Demon Deacons front four must own gaps. Mississippi State’s reworked skill group will try to lean on the ground game and quick throws to protect a young passer. If Wake forces third and seven, its disguised coverages have the advantage. Pressure with four is the dream. Timely green dog blitzes can finish the job.
Wake’s backs are built for contact balance, not just speed. That matters on a cold field with short week timing. Keep an eye on yards after contact. If those numbers climb, the Bulldogs will have to drop a safety and open windows outside.
The scene and the stakes
This bowl is a regional party with a spicy twist. Charlotte fills with black and gold, maroon and white, and a lot of mayo jokes. The trophy moment is part of the draw, but the football is the point. For Wake, a win validates a season that bent, not broke. For Mississippi State, it is a chance to flash the next wave in a national window and carry momentum into winter workouts.
ACC versus SEC still carries weight in every living room that cares about recruiting. A clean, tough Wake performance here plays on loop in North Carolina homes. It also reminds everyone why the slow mesh is hated by coordinators who have to stop it and loved by coaches who want a plan that travels.
Conclusion
This game flipped before it started. Mississippi State’s opt outs changed the math, and Wake Forest is built to exploit hesitation and thin depth. I expect a crisp, patient Demon Deacons performance, a heavy third down diet, and a one score finish that tilts their way. If Mississippi State finds explosives, all bets are off. If not, the mayo bath is likely headed to Winston-Salem.
