Stamford Bridge has sprung to life. Chelsea, winless in four, came out sharp and on the front foot. Everton, reborn under David Moyes, are standing firm. Early on, the ball belongs to Chelsea. The first real pause came when Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall went down and needed treatment. He got up and continued, but Everton’s midfield balance will be watched closely from here.
Live from Stamford Bridge: The opening picture
Chelsea started with intent, pressing high and keeping the ball. Their fullbacks push up, which pinches Everton back and sets an early tone. The hosts want a fast first goal to settle nerves after a rough month. They are playing patient passes and looking for sharp angles into the box.
Everton look organized. They drop into two tight lines and squeeze the middle. Moyes has set them to win second balls and attack wide. Dewsbury-Hall’s knock was a scare, because he carries their counter threat from midfield. He returned after treatment, but he is not moving at full pace yet. That could change Everton’s transitions.
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 30 league home games against Everton, a record run for this fixture at the Bridge.
The tactical fight that will decide this
Chelsea’s biggest question is midfield control. Moises Caicedo is suspended, so the balance shifts. Conor Gallagher has to sit deeper and shield breaks. Enzo Fernandez must pick passes through a packed block. The creative spark rests with Cole Palmer between the lines. If Estêvão starts on the right, the dribble threat jumps, and that can pin Everton’s left side.
The striker choice matters. If Chelsea go with a mover who runs channels, that stretches the Everton center backs. If they use a target, crosses and cutbacks become the plan. Without Caicedo, Chelsea cannot afford sloppy turnovers. Everton will pounce.
Everton’s shape is pragmatic. They will defend in a narrow 4-4-2 and then break into space for Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Set pieces are a major card. With Jarrad Branthwaite out, the marking mix changes, but Everton still load the six-yard box and attack the near post. Chelsea, missing size in midfield, must not give away cheap fouls.
- Key absences today: Moises Caicedo suspended, Levi Colwill and Romeo Lavia out, Jarrad Branthwaite and Seamus Coleman missing for Everton
Watch Chelsea’s right edge. If Palmer and Estêvão link cleanly, Everton’s block will be dragged out of line.
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History weighs in, momentum pushes back
This fixture has a clear story at this ground. Everton have not won at Stamford Bridge since 1994. Managers have come and gone, squads have flipped, but the pattern has stayed. Chelsea trust the Bridge. They play with more freedom here, even in lean spells.
Yet this Everton feels different. Moyes has tightened the back line and sharpened the press on the second ball. They have stacked recent clean sheets away from home, and the group believes. The plan is simple, defend the box, run hard, and take the first big chance. If they score first, the mood flips fast.
Our projection still leans Chelsea, roughly 57 percent to win in regulation, but the gap is thinner than that history suggests. Form and fitness narrow it.
What the table demands right now
This is Week 16. Chelsea need a clean, convincing win to calm a restless period. They have dropped points from winning positions at home this season, and that has stung. Today is about control, game management, and a ruthless second goal if they get ahead.
Everton are chasing Europe. They have won four of five in the league, and the defense looks sure. A point at the Bridge is a platform. A win would be a statement. It would also break that long drought in this stadium and send a jolt through the top half.
