Nikita Krylov is back in a high-stakes spot, and he has a dangerous dance partner. Krylov will face Modestas Bukauskas at UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, 2026. I have the matchup locked and the stakes are clear. The winner moves toward the front of the light heavyweight line, and the betting boards are already shifting. This is a must-watch clash of pressure versus movement, power versus polish. Buckle up. 🔥
Why This Fight Matters Now
Krylov is the veteran every contender must pass. He has long been a chaos engine at 205. He kicks the body, hunts the neck, and scrambles with bad intentions. You do not get a calm night against him. His finishing rate remains one of the division’s best, and he knows how to turn a round with one burst.
Bukauskas brings a different flavor. He sets traps with footwork and straight shots. He is a former Cage Warriors champion with a clean, technical style. He likes to take the long road, pick spots, and punish mistakes. He has rebuilt his career with patience and grit, and he wants a signature UFC win to prove he belongs in the top tier.
This is a meeting of tempos. Krylov wants heat. Bukauskas wants control. The winner earns momentum and a louder say in matchmaking at 205.
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UFC 324, January 24, 2026. Light heavyweight bout, Krylov vs. Bukauskas, with ranking leverage on the line.
The Stylistic Chess Match
Krylov’s path is no secret. Pressure early, kick hard, draw the guard high, then change levels. His clinch is mean, and he loves front chokes when opponents panic. If he gets to top position, he punishes with elbows and looks for the back. The risk is also known. He can overcommit. When entries get sloppy, he leaves counters and reversals on the table.
Bukauskas answers with movement. He circles, jabs, and chews at the legs. He likes to make opponents reset, then he touches them again. The key is discipline. He must maintain distance, keep his back off the fence, and force Krylov to shoot from too far out. If he cools the early storm, the fight grows in his favor.
Here are the five swing factors I am watching:
- Early fence control and who wins the first clinch breaks
- Calf kicks from Bukauskas and how Krylov checks or counters
- Krylov’s level changes after body kicks land
- Scramble quality in round two if both get sweaty
- Cardio pace if this reaches the final horn
Bukauskas rebuilt his career after a serious knee injury. His improved balance and footwork are real. This is a key test of that progress.
Odds Snapshot and Betting Edge
Krylov enters fight week as the favorite on most boards. That respect comes from volume, experience, and finishing threat. The number, however, has tightened as bettors weigh Bukauskas’ footwork and range tools. When prices compress, value often shifts to methods and totals.
I see two angles that make sense. Krylov by submission sits at a longer price than his moneyline, and the path is there if he chains takedowns off body work. He is especially deadly once he rides to the back. On the other side, Bukauskas by decision is live if he keeps the fight standing and clean. He can bank minutes with jabs, low kicks, and resets.
Totals deserve a look as well. The market expects violence because Krylov finishes fights. Still, respect can slow early exchanges. An over 1.5 or even a late finish prop may hold value if you believe the first round is cautious.
If the favorite price tightens, look to prop markets. Method and round bets can offer a better number than a straight side.
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What Each Man Must Do
Krylov must win the real estate battle. He needs to step Bukauskas into the fence, land to the body, and force clumsy exits. That creates shots for doubles and singles. If he gets top control, he cannot chase too fast. Heavy hips, steady pressure, and work to the back will pay off. Clean entries reduce the risk of an eating a counter right down the pipe.
Bukauskas must manage risk in layers. First, deny the cage. Second, punish entries with the jab and the calf kick. Third, clinch briefly only to escape, not to trade. He should pick at Krylov’s legs, then go upstairs once the hands drift. If he makes Krylov reset again and again, the openings will grow by round three.
What A Win Means At 205
Light heavyweight has fresh names pushing upward. A strong win here places either man on the shortlist for a ranked booking next. Krylov has the resume for a top 10 opponent with a statement finish. Bukauskas, with a clean decision or late stoppage, would have the breakout he has hunted since returning to the roster. Either way, this result will shape the first half of the year at 205, and it will change the phone calls matchmakers make on Monday morning.
The Call
Both men can win this. Bukauskas has the cleaner lines at range. But Krylov brings a style that punishes pretty footwork if he traps you once. My lean is Krylov by late submission after steady body work and patient mat control. If Bukauskas survives the early squeeze and keeps the center, his decision path stays live. The margins are thin. The stakes are not. See you Saturday.
