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CFP 2025 Quarterfinal Preview: Bracket Picks and Upsets

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Derek Johnson
5 min read
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Stop what you’re doing. The 2025 College Football Playoff bracket is locked, the quarterfinals are set for Friday, Dec. 20, and I have the roadmap. Four games, two national windows, one night that will reshape the title chase. Brackets are live, angles are clear, and the margin for error is razor thin.

How We Got Here

The expanded field delivered chaos and clarity. Conference champions claimed top billing, earning the highest seeds and the cleanest path. At large teams battled through late November, built their cases with ranked wins, and now land in the quarterfinal round after surviving opening tests. Depth matters more in this format. So does travel, recovery, and coaching under pressure. Neutral sites favor the prepared and punish slow starts.

This bracket rewards complete teams. Power at the line, veteran quarterback play, and special teams discipline show up in December. One series can flip a game. One tackle in space can save a season. You feel it with every snap.

CFP 2025 Quarterfinal Preview: Bracket Picks and Upsets - Image 1
Important

Quarterfinals kick off Friday, Dec. 20, in two national windows. Lock your bracket before the first kickoff.

Quarterfinal Preview

The 4 vs 5 game is the pivot. It often plays like a semifinal, with elite speed on both sidelines and big coaching decisions in the middle eight minutes. The difference here is usually third down. The team that stays on schedule on second down keeps its plan, keeps its tempo, and keeps control.

The 3 vs 6 game is the first real upset lane. The 6 seed tends to bring a puncher’s chance, often with a top 10 unit on one side of the ball. If that side is defense, you get a field position grinder. If it is offense, you get a race to 35 and a late two minute drill that decides everything.

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The top seeds step in off byes and fresh legs. That rest is gold. It helps the pass rush. It resets the run game. It sharpens red zone plans. It can also invite rust in the first quarter. Watch how the favorites script their first 15 plays. If they land early, they usually pull away. If not, the lower seed grows louder and braver.

Special teams will matter. Hidden yards stack up in bowl stadiums with different sight lines and December winds. The team that flips the field with a single return or pins two punts inside the 10 flips win probability fast.

What will decide these games

  • Quarterback poise on third and medium
  • Pass rush versus protection in two minute drills
  • Explosive plays allowed outside the numbers
  • Red zone calls, especially fourth and short
  • Turnover margin, most of all
Pro Tip

When in doubt, ride the line of scrimmage. December belongs to fronts that can bully and protect.

Bracket Picks and the Upset Map

Here is how I’m playing it. I lean favorite in two quarterfinals, pick one controlled upset, and leave one coin flip to late injury news. That shape wins pools more often than chasing chaos across the board. The 4 vs 5 winner is live to reach the title game, so give that matchup extra weight. If your bracket scoring rewards later rounds, protect your top seed but do not be afraid to slide the 3 seed out if the matchup screams trouble.

Defenses that travel, win. Look for teams that tackle in space, rally to the ball, and limit yards after contact. On offense, balanced beats one note. A unit that can run when everyone knows it, and throw when it must, owns December. If you are choosing between two elite quarterbacks, take the one behind the better center and guards. Clean pockets win trophies.

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Analytics tell the same story coaches do. Success rate and explosive play rate separate winners from almost winners. You do not need the spreadsheet to see it. If a team lives on low percentage deep shots, fades in the red zone, and misses tackles, it is a fade in your bracket. If a team stacks efficient drives, steals a possession with a fourth down plan, and covers kicks, it is a buy.

Note

Monitor final availability on game day. One missing tackle leader or left tackle can swing an entire side of your bracket.

How to Watch on Dec. 20

The quarterfinals run across the ESPN family of networks, with primetime coverage built for a national stage. Expect a mid afternoon kickoff and a prime window to close the night. You can stream every snap in the ESPN app, through authenticated cable and live TV providers. Alternate presentations and mega-casts are available for select games, including coach’s room and analytics focused views. Set alerts, update your app, and keep a charger handy. It will be a long, loud Friday.

CFP 2025 Quarterfinal Preview: Bracket Picks and Upsets - Image 2

If you are watching with friends, plan the switch to the late game at halftime of the early one. You will not miss a thing. Studio coverage will bridge both windows with live look ins, injury updates, and expert breakdowns. Keep an eye on field level shots during warmups. You can spot who moves well, who favors a shoulder, and who sets the tone before the anthem.

The Final Word

This is the best kind of December football. Heavyweight lines. Fast skill. Smart coaches. One night that will lift contenders and crush dreams. I have my bracket in, with two favorites, one bold upset, and one game I will decide after inactives come out. Hold your nerve, trust the trenches, and enjoy the chaos. The quarterfinals are here, the stage is set, and the next champion takes a step on Friday night. 🏈

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Written by

Derek Johnson

Sports analyst and former athlete. Breaking down games, players, and sports culture.

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