The Buffalo Bills are handing their offense to a proven play designer. I can confirm Buffalo is finalizing a deal to hire Pete Carmichael Jr. as offensive coordinator. The longtime Sean Payton lieutenant will be charged with tuning Josh Allen’s engine for precision, efficiency, and points.
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Why Carmichael, Why Now
This move fits the Bills’ moment. Buffalo has lived on big plays and Allen’s brilliance, yet too often left yards and red zone points on the field. Carmichael brings a steady hand and a clear system. He ran the Saints offense from 2009 to 2023, a run that featured a Super Bowl title and a string of top attacks. He most recently worked with Payton again in Denver, reinforcing the same core philosophy.
His playbook is simple to describe, hard to stop. Timing based passing. Heavy motion. Spacing that forces clean reads. Running backs and tight ends featured in the pass game. The goal is to win downs before the snap, then win again with precision after it.
Carmichael is known for building quarterback friendly structures. He trims waste, creates matchups, and plays the situation. That is exactly what Buffalo needs to push from very good to ruthless.
What This Means For Josh Allen
Allen is a rare weapon, but the job now is to make every snap count. Expect more quick answers and fewer hero throws in traffic. Expect defined first reads, checkdowns that are built in, and routes that break on time. Completion percentage goes up when decisions get lighter.
This scheme can be a cheat code for tight ends and backs, great news for Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. Kincaid will live on option routes, seams, and crossers that punish soft zones. Cook will see swings, angle routes, and screens that punish pressure. The wideouts benefit from condensed splits and stacks that shake loose press coverage. Keon Coleman’s size can be a weapon on in breakers and fades. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel fit the motion game and can stress defenders horizontally.
- More pre snap motion that identifies coverage and creates leverage
- A stronger quick game, slants and sticks that keep the offense on schedule
- More under center play action to marry run and pass
- Running backs and tight ends targeted early, not only in checkdowns
- Condensed splits, bunch sets, and picks that free receivers on third downs
Watch for more two tight end looks with Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Carmichael uses 12 personnel to force base defenders into space, then hunts matchups.
The Fast Gains, Red Zone And Third Down
If you want to see the Carmichael effect, look inside the 20 and on money downs. In the red zone, his offenses shift and motion to mess with leverage. They isolate tight ends on smaller defenders. They stress linebackers with running back choice routes. They also use hard play action to create easy throws near the pylon.
On third down, spacing and timing are king. Expect bunch formations, rub concepts, and whip routes that create clean releases. Allen will have answers versus man and zone, and answers versus pressure. That trims sacks, cuts loose balls, and keeps drives alive.
Turnovers are also part of this story. The system narrows risk without taking away Allen’s edge. You will still see deep shots. You will see layered play action and max protect. The difference is when to go and when to cash the easy five yards.
Allen’s legs will remain a weapon, but watch for smarter use. More designed runs in high leverage spots. Fewer scramble and pray moments on early downs.
Fit With The Roster
The Bills have the pieces to lean into this plan. Kincaid is a natural volume target in the middle of the field. Knox adds size and toughness. Cook is a smooth receiver who can win on choice routes. Shakir and Samuel give Allen trustworthy separators in motion. Coleman provides catch radius and red zone value.
Up front, this scheme helps linemen with tempo and rhythm. Screens and quick game slow pass rush. Under center play action creates angles for the run game. That can help a group led by Dion Dawkins and O’Cyrus Torrence settle into a physical, efficient identity.
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What Changes Next
Carmichael will move quickly on language and installation. Expect a clean translation of Payton tree terminology, blended with concepts that fit Buffalo’s current strengths. Spring and summer work will be about timing and trust. The coaches will drill details, splits, stems, and landmarks. The goal is that the ball is out on time, to the right spot, with yards after the catch built in.
The next hires on staff matter too. A pass game coordinator who speaks Carmichael’s language. An offensive line voice that can teach the run and play action marriage. The plan is clear, the execution now becomes the edge.
Conclusion
Buffalo just chose precision over chaos, and structure over streaks. Pete Carmichael’s offense gives Josh Allen fast answers and steady gains, without dulling his star power. If the Bills finish more drives and cut a few mistakes, the AFC race tilts. This is a bet on details and discipline. It is also a bet that a great quarterback becomes even more efficient, and even more dangerous.
