Skagit County is flooding today. A powerful atmospheric river is slamming western Washington with historic rain. The Skagit River is surging toward record crests, and water is already in streets and fields. Level 3, Go NOW, evacuations are in effect in low areas. This is the most dangerous flood threat here in years.
What we know right now
An AR5 atmospheric river, the highest rating on the West Coast scale, is parked over the region. It has poured double digit inches of rain into the Cascades in less than 48 hours. Streams have spilled over, and the Skagit is rising fast.
Forecast crests are extreme. At Concrete, the river is expected to peak near 47.62 feet late Thursday, December 11. At Mount Vernon, a crest near 41.54 feet is expected on Friday, December 12. These heights push past many past high water marks and challenge levees and flood walls that protect neighborhoods and farms.
Level 3, Go NOW, evacuations cover parts of Concrete, Marblemount, Rockport, Hamilton, and Lyman. In Mount Vernon, evacuation orders include low ground near the river, especially west of I-5. Schools across the valley have closed. Roads are shutting down by the hour. Crews are guarding levees, moving pumps, and staging swift water teams. The state has declared an emergency and mobilized the National Guard.
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On the ground impacts
Water is spreading across the Skagit flats and through river towns. Basements are flooding. Farmyards are swamped. Dairies are moving cattle to higher barns. In Mount Vernon, sandbag lines are running beside the flood wall. At Concrete, the river is chewing at banks and bridge approaches. Debris loads are heavy, with logs and limbs hammering piers.
Rain on steep slopes is triggering slides. Expect sudden road closures where hillsides give way. Power crews are working outages as trees topple into lines. Storm drains are overwhelmed, so even places outside mapped flood zones can see street flooding.
Evacuate if ordered. Do not drive through flood water. It is deeper and faster than it looks. Turn around, do not risk it. 🚨
If you live in a flood prone zone, act now:
- Grab your go bag, meds, documents, and pets
- Unplug appliances, shut off gas if told to do so
- Move to higher ground or a shelter on safe routes
- Check on neighbors who may need help
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Why this flood is so intense
This storm is a conveyor belt of warm, wet air from the subtropics. Warmer air holds more water, so when it hits the Cascades it drops torrents of rain. Snow levels have been high, so rain is falling on snowpack and adding even more runoff. Soils were already saturated after a wet week, which speeds runoff into the river.
Climate change is loading the dice. The Pacific is warmer than it used to be, which feeds more moisture into these rivers in the sky. Atmospheric rivers are becoming longer and wetter, which raises the risk of record crests. Our defenses, many built in the last century, were not designed for this level of flow. Levees, flood walls, and pumps are working hard, but they have limits.
Long term solutions are clear. We need higher and stronger levees in key spots, smarter floodways, and more room for the river. Restoring floodplains, elevating homes, and buying out the most at risk parcels will save lives and money. Green spaces that absorb water can ease peak flows and reduce damage.
Tonight is about safety. Tomorrow must be about building for the climate we have now, not the one we had decades ago.
What happens next
Expect the Skagit to surge into Thursday night, then push its peak downstream into Friday. Backwater flooding will expand into side channels and sloughs. Tides can slow drainage near the mouth, which prolongs high water in low neighborhoods. After the crest passes, the river will fall, but landslide danger will linger. Rivers, like saturated hillsides, take time to settle.
Crews are watching levees around Mount Vernon, Burlington, and upriver towns. Pump stations will run hard through the weekend. Damage assessments will begin once waters drop, including inspections of roads, bridges, and utilities. There is a chance of another moisture push behind this one. I will update if new storm waves line up.
Sign up for local alerts, know your evacuation route, and check river gauges before you travel. Keep your phone charged and your car fueled.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Which areas should evacuate now?
A: Low lying parts of Concrete, Rockport, Hamilton, Lyman, Marblemount, and river adjacent neighborhoods in Mount Vernon. If you are under a Level 3 order, leave now.
Q: Where are shelters?
A: Community shelters are open on higher ground near Mount Vernon and Burlington, with pet spaces at select sites. Follow county alerts for addresses and capacity.
Q: How long will the water stay up?
A: Expect the upstream crest late Thursday, then the peak to reach Mount Vernon Friday. High water and road closures can persist into the weekend.
Q: What should I pack if I leave?
A: Bring ID, cash, meds, chargers, warm clothes, food and water for 72 hours, and supplies for pets.
Q: Is the flood wall in downtown Mount Vernon safe?
A: Crews are monitoring it around the clock. It reduces risk, but extreme crests can overtop defenses. Follow official instructions without delay.
Skagit County is facing a climate charged flood, the kind scientists have warned would come more often. If you are told to go, go. If you can help safely, help. Tonight, speed and care will save lives.
