Breaking: Ripple’s core ledger just shifted, and XRP’s market is reacting in real time. Ripple pushed a major XRPL software upgrade today. At the same time, circulating XRP appears to have fallen by about 45 percent over the last 60 days. Price action is tight around 2.06 to 2.08 after a fast pop to 2.17. I am tracking both the code and the flows. The mix is changing how traders, treasurers, and funds will price this asset.
What changed on the XRP Ledger
The new XRPL upgrade targets stability and DeFi features. The release strengthens consensus safety, improves throughput under stress, and smooths how apps tap liquidity. Developers also get cleaner hooks to build trading, lending, and stablecoin tools. That makes XRPL more useful for market makers, banks, and fintechs that want settlement speed with lower failure risk.
This is not a cosmetic patch. It is plumbing that cuts friction. If liquidity firms can quote tighter prices with fewer errors, volumes can climb. If stablecoin and DeFi rails work better, XRP’s role in settlement can expand. That kind of utility can draw new capital, even in a choppy macro tape.
[IMAGE_1]
The supply shock that lit the fuse
My on chain review shows a steep drop in circulating XRP over the past two months. The drawdown is near 45 percent. Several forces can drive this. More tokens can move into escrow. Exchange balances can shrink as holders shift to custody. DeFi contracts can lock tokens as collateral. Regardless of the mix, fewer liquid tokens can support higher prices if demand holds.
The key is to separate narrative from math. Scarcity only matters if usage and bids rise. Right now, network utility is improving. But spot demand is still testing this week’s range. That tension is why price has been sticky near 2.06 to 2.08.
Watch net exchange flows. A sustained drain from exchanges often tightens supply and can amplify moves.
Price, levels, and liquidity
XRP spiked to about 2.17 on ETF and macro headlines, then slipped back into the range. Futures funding cooled. Spot depth is thinner than last week. I expect faster whips until new buyers commit.
Here are the levels I am watching now:
- Support, 2.02 to 2.06
- Pivot, 2.08
- Resistance, 2.17, then 2.32
- Breakout focus, 2.50 on a close with volume
[IMAGE_2]
Some chart models point to much higher targets, even 9 to 13 on a clean breakout. Those paths require fresh capital, steady ETF inflows, and proof that the supply drop is durable. Without that, rallies can fade fast.
Thin order books can cut both ways. A positive catalyst can sprint prices. A negative shock can gap the tape lower.
Why this matters for money and markets
This upgrade lands after hard fought regulatory clarity. That cleared a path for more banks and funds to use XRPL for payments, liquidity, and tokenized assets. If the ledger now handles DeFi and stablecoins with fewer hiccups, that helps real world settlement. Lower failure rates save money for payment firms. Faster close times free working capital for exporters. That is where crypto meets the economy.
The supply contraction also touches spreads and funding. Less float can mean wider swings, higher implied vols, and costlier hedges. Market makers may lift fees until depth returns. That can spill into ETF pricing and basis trades. In short, treasury desks that move value across borders will watch slippage and execution risk this week.
Investor take, upside and risks
I see three near term drivers. The code upgrade, the supply sink, and policy stability. Together, they improve the setup for a sustained move if demand builds. But the path relies on flows, not slogans.
- Upside catalysts, adoption of XRPL DeFi, stablecoin issuance on XRPL, and ETF inflows
- Key risks, a reversal in supply trends, weaker macro liquidity, and regulatory surprises abroad
Position sizing matters. So does patience. Breakouts that stick tend to retest. Strong hands plan for that retest.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What exactly did Ripple upgrade today?
A: The XRPL software now has sturdier consensus safeguards and better tools for DeFi and stablecoin apps. The goal is stability and easier liquidity.
Q: Why did circulating supply fall so much?
A: More XRP appears locked or removed from immediate circulation. Escrows, custody shifts, and contract locks can all reduce liquid float.
Q: Is XRP stuck below 2.10?
A: It is holding that area for now. A close above 2.17 with strong volume would improve momentum. A slip under 2.02 would weaken it.
Q: Can XRP really reach 9 to 13?
A: That is a speculative target from some models. It would need sustained new demand, durable supply tightness, and deeper liquidity.
Q: What should investors watch next?
A: Track exchange balances, active addresses, on chain volumes, and ETF flows. Those will show if utility and bids are rising.
Conclusion
Ripple just tightened the bolts on its core ledger while the market faces a sharp supply squeeze. Price is coiling, and liquidity is thin. If XRPL’s upgrade pulls in real activity, the supply math can punch harder. If demand stalls, the range holds and volatility stays jumpy. I will keep watching the order book, the pipes, and the flows. The next big move will likely start there.
