GE Vernova detonates its long game, and the stock is reacting. The power and renewables company raised its 2028 targets, doubled its dividend, and unveiled a huge buyback. Shares of GEV are trading near 625.30 this afternoon, moving between 613 and 669. The message is clear, growth is running ahead of plan, and cash is coming back to investors. ⚡
What changed today
Management lifted the multiyear bar. The new 2028 revenue target is 52 billion, up from 45 billion. The company now aims for a 20 percent adjusted EBITDA margin in 2028, up from 14 percent. That margin shift is the headline, it implies a larger profit engine on the same grid, gas, and wind footprint.
Capital returns got a major upgrade. The quarterly dividend rises to 0.50 per share, up from 0.25. The board also approved a 10 billion share repurchase plan. After a year of strong execution and balance sheet repair, GE Vernova is signaling durable free cash flow.
Orders and backlog support the move. Third quarter orders jumped about 55 percent to 14.6 billion, with electrification and power booking heavy volume. Revenue rose in the low teens, and net income moved solidly into the black. That is not a one quarter blip, it is a run rate shift.
New 2028 plan, 52 billion revenue, 20 percent adjusted EBITDA margin, 10 billion buyback, 0.50 quarterly dividend.
Why it matters for the economy
GE Vernova sits at the center of the grid buildout. Data centers, onshoring, and renewables are straining old wires and transformers. The company is moving to lock in supply, scale, and services. It agreed to buy the remaining 50 percent of Prolec GE for 5.275 billion, a deal that boosts control in transformers, a key bottleneck. Closing is expected by mid 2026.
Wind is also healing. The company is winning onshore orders in Europe and Asia, and it is leaning into repowering and services. That mix supports higher margins through the cycle. The payoff is a stickier backlog and better cash conversion when projects hit milestones.
Institutional ownership sits near 78.6 percent. That base has been adding, and the stock is up about 77 percent year to date. Big money is paying up for exposure to grid and power, and GE Vernova has become a core holding for that theme.
Does the new math justify the price
The stock is not cheap. By my math, shares trade near 34 times projected 2027 earnings. On the new plan, 52 billion of revenue at a 20 percent adjusted EBITDA margin implies about 10.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2028. If the company keeps capital discipline and grows services, free cash flow should climb faster than revenue.
That said, execution risk is real. Wind quality, grid project timing, and supply chain costs can swing margins. The Prolec deal must integrate cleanly. And policy support for transmission must stay on track to keep orders converting into revenue.
Here is the way to think about it. Today’s valuation already bakes in much of the 2028 upside. Shares can work from here if management beats, or if the market gains confidence in margin durability. They can also stall if orders pause or if mix shifts back to lower margin equipment.
Great targets do not remove cycle risk. Watch backlog conversion, service mix, and Prolec integration in 2026.
What investors should do now
Current holders have the wind at their backs. The bigger dividend and buyback add a floor, and the backlog now has real teeth. Trimming is a portfolio call, not a fundamentals call. If this is a core energy transition position, let it run and use the buyback and dividend to compound.
Prospective buyers have two good paths. First, build a position in stages to manage entry risk. Second, wait for pullbacks tied to project timing or macro jitters. Support should start to form near recent lows in the 590 to 610 range, where buybacks can be active and funds tend to reload.
- What to watch next:
- Backlog conversion rates and cash flow per quarter
- Margin mix in wind services and upgrades
- Prolec closing progress and transformer lead times
- Capital return cadence versus free cash flow
If you buy, buy on weakness. If you own, let the plan work, and use dips to rebalance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What exactly did GE Vernova raise today?
A: The company lifted its 2028 revenue goal to 52 billion and set a 20 percent adjusted EBITDA margin target. It also doubled the quarterly dividend to 0.50 and authorized a 10 billion buyback.
Q: Why is the stock moving if the gain is modest today?
A: Expectations were already high after a strong year. The stock rallied into the event, and today’s update supports those gains rather than shocking the market.
Q: How strong is demand right now?
A: Third quarter orders rose about 55 percent to 14.6 billion. Electrification and gas power are driving volume, and wind services are improving mix.
Q: What is the biggest risk to the story?
A: Execution and timing. Grid projects can slip. Wind margins must hold. The Prolec deal must integrate smoothly.
Q: Is the valuation too rich?
A: It is full, near 34 times projected 2027 earnings. It can be earned if the 2028 margin plan holds and free cash flow scales.
Conclusion
GE Vernova just put a bigger scoreboard on the wall, and it plans to pay investors while it hits it. The raised 2028 targets, a larger dividend, and a 10 billion buyback support a premium story tied to the grid buildout. The valuation asks for near flawless execution, but the order book and strategy give it a real shot. For owners, the bias is to hold. For new money, let the stock come to you, then lean into the plan.
