Breaking: U.S. mortgage rates just slipped again. The 30-year fixed is now circling 6 percent, with the 15-year in the mid 5s. The move is small, but it matters. Markets are bracing for another Fed rate cut this week, and bonds are already pricing it in. That is pulling mortgage pricing lower, even as affordability remains tight for most buyers.
Right now, 30-year fixed quotes are clustering between 5.99 percent and 6.28 percent. The 15-year sits around 5.3 percent to 5.6 percent. Refinance pricing is higher, near 6.8 percent in many snapshots, because lenders are adding risk premiums and protecting margins.
What moved rates today
Expectations for the Fed to cut at the December 9 to 10 meeting have eased long-term yields. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed funds rate, but the link is tight. When investors expect easier policy, the 10-year yield falls, and lenders pass some of that into rate sheets.
The spread between mortgage rates and Treasurys is still wider than normal. Lenders are cautious on credit risk, prepayments, and capital. That is why refinance rates often price higher than purchase deals. Lenders prefer steady purchase pipelines, and they charge more when they fear early payoffs.
Rates are easing, not low. Affordability pressure is still the story, especially in high-cost markets.
The numbers and the payment math
Here is the practical impact. On a 400,000 loan at 6.1 percent, the principal and interest payment is about 2,430 dollars a month. At 6.6 percent, it was near 2,550 dollars. That is roughly 120 dollars in monthly savings. Good news, but not game changing for stretched budgets.
Affordability remains tough. More than three out of four homes are out of reach for a typical household making about 80,000 dollars. In many metros, buyers need incomes near 113,000 dollars to clear the bar. The relief from a few tenths of a point helps, but price levels and taxes still do most of the damage.
What a Fed cut could mean next
A cut this week would not set mortgage rates directly. The tone matters more. If the Fed signals more easing in 2026, the 10-year yield can drift lower, and mortgage rates could follow toward the low 5s. If the Fed sounds tougher on inflation, yields can bounce, and mortgages can pop back above 6.25 percent.
Volatility around the meeting can be sharp over 24 to 48 hours. Some lenders reprice twice a day on big bond moves. If you are inside a 30-day close, rate risk is real.
- Closing in 2 to 4 weeks, consider locking to protect your payment.
- Closing in 60 to 90 days, float with a ceiling, and watch the Fed press conference.
- Shop at least three lenders, and compare total costs, not just the note rate.
- Buy points only if the break-even is under four years, and you plan to stay put.
Ask about a float-down. Some lenders let you lock today and drop once if rates improve before closing.
Housing and market impact
Lower rates may draw more sellers off the sidelines this winter. That could add listings into spring. If demand rebounds faster than supply, prices can firm into the selling season. The tightest affordability remains on the West Coast, South Florida, and the Northeast. The Midwest and parts of the Southeast still offer better price-to-income ratios.
Investors, watch the bond and equity spillovers. Mortgage bond spreads can tighten if rate volatility cools, which helps lenders and some mortgage REITs. Homebuilder stocks often catch a bid when rates fall, though land, labor, and materials still cap margins. Regional banks see mixed effects. Servicing rights lose value when prepayments rise, but a lower Fed path eases funding costs.
Refinancing is not free. Closing costs can run 2 to 3 percent. Do the math on a clear break-even date before you move.
Strategy by borrower type
First-time buyers should lock if the monthly payment works and the home fits the budget. Waiting for a perfect rate can cost you the house you want.
Move-up buyers should pair a rate lock with seller credits and a longer rate-lock period. Consider temporary buydowns to bridge the first two years.
Refinancers should target a payment drop that earns back costs in 24 to 36 months. VA and FHA borrowers may find streamlined paths with lower fees.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Will mortgage rates drop below 5 percent soon?
A: That would likely take a larger fall in inflation and deeper Fed cuts. It is possible, but not the base case today.
Q: Should I wait for the Fed meeting to lock?
A: If you are within 30 days of closing, lock if the payment fits. Meeting days can be choppy.
Q: Why are refinance rates higher than purchase rates?
A: Lenders price in early payoff risk and capacity limits. They prefer steady purchase pipelines.
Q: Is an adjustable rate mortgage smart right now?
A: ARMs can price lower up front. They carry reset risk later. Only choose one if you will move or refinance before the reset.
Q: How much does a 0.25 percent change save?
A: On a 400,000 loan, about 60 to 70 dollars per month, depending on term and taxes.
Conclusion
Mortgage rates just eased toward 6 percent on the 30-year, with the 15-year in the mid 5s. A Fed cut could nudge them lower, but affordability is still tight, and volatility is likely this week. If the payment works, protect it. Shop hard, read the fee sheet, and make the rate serve the plan, not the other way around. 🏠
