The College Football Playoff picture just flipped on its head. Selection Sunday is here, and the bracket reveal suddenly feels electric. Indiana stunned No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and Duke won the ACC in overtime. Those two results alone reshaped the top of the field, the at-large debate, and the path to Miami for the national title.
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Selection Sunday chaos
Indiana’s 13 to 10 shocker over Ohio State changed everything. The Hoosiers won their first outright league crown since 1967. They did it with toughness and patience. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw for 222 yards and a touchdown. The defense bent but did not break. A missed 27 yard Ohio State field goal in the final minute sealed the upset.
The ripple effect is huge. Indiana has the resume and momentum to claim the No. 1 overall seed. A first round bye now looks locked. That pushes everyone else down a line. It also keeps Ohio State in a tricky spot. The Buckeyes still own a deep profile, but a late loss is hard to ignore.
Duke’s overtime win in the ACC is historic. It is the Blue Devils’ first outright title since 1962. They are 8 and 5, which hurts their case. The committee has preached body of work, not just banners. Duke’s trophy matters, but the record may keep them out of the 12.
Seeding follows the final CFP rankings only. The top four in those rankings get the byes, no matter who won a league title.
How the upset reshapes the top seeds
Georgia rolled Alabama in the SEC title game, 28 to 7. Texas Tech crushed BYU to win the Big 12, their first outright crown since 1955. Those wins set up a tight race for the top four.
- Projected top seeds, in order: Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, and a fight for No. 4
Ohio State could still stick at No. 4. Oregon, Ole Miss, or Texas A and M may argue they deserve it. Strength of schedule and ranked wins will tell the story. If the Buckeyes hold on to a bye, they will feel fortunate after Saturday night’s shock.
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At-large drama and the Group of Five wildcard
The seven at-large bids will be tense television. The margins are thin. Alabama, Notre Dame, and Miami sit at the heart of the debate. Alabama’s heavy loss to Georgia hurts. Notre Dame’s road wins help. Miami’s defense closed strong. Only two of those three are likely in.
Then comes the Group of Five chase. James Madison, at 12 and 1, has a clean case. Tulane is lurking too. Duke has the ACC crown, but the record is a problem. The committee has to square access and merit.
First round games are played on campus. Home crowds and December weather can swing a matchup in minutes.
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What the bracket could look like
If Indiana lands No. 1, the Hoosiers will rest on opening weekend. Georgia and Texas Tech should also get byes. The final bye will decide which blueblood avoids a road game. Quarterfinals will run through major bowls. The Rose and Sugar on January 1 will feel like old-school showcases, with modern stakes.
Keep an eye on potential routes. Indiana’s path could stack against a physical SEC or Big Ten opponent in a semifinal. Georgia would likely draw a speed-heavy team in a New Year’s Six setting. Texas Tech’s offense is explosive, which makes them dangerous in a dome. Matchups will matter more than brand names in this format.
One more wrinkle. The seeding change from May makes every ranking slot matter. A team with a title but a lower number will travel. A team without a title but ranked fourth will sit.
Bigger picture, bigger stakes
This is the second year of the 12 team playoff, and it already feels bigger. The sport wanted access and drama. It has both. Indiana’s rise is a reminder that belief travels. Duke’s title shows that tradition can be rewritten in one night. Fans will pack campus sites in two weeks. The old bowl season has a new edge.
The future is also in play. The Big Ten has floated a jump to 24 or even 28 teams. Others are cool on that idea. The deadline for a decision moved to January 23, 2026. For now, 12 teams is plenty. The corridor to the trophy is crowded, and it is loud.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Who is likely to be the No. 1 seed?
A: Indiana, after upsetting Ohio State and winning the Big Ten.
Q: Do all conference champs get a first round bye?
A: No. Byes go to the top four in the final rankings, not just champions.
Q: Which teams are on the at-large bubble?
A: Alabama, Notre Dame, and Miami are the biggest names in that fight.
Q: What about the Group of Five?
A: James Madison and Tulane are in the mix. Duke’s title helps, but the record hurts.
Q: When are the first round games?
A: December 19 and 20, on campus sites. Quarterfinals follow at the New Year’s Six bowls.
Conclusion
Selection Sunday is set to deliver shock and clarity all at once. Indiana’s surge, Georgia’s power, and the at-large knife fight shape a bracket with real bite. The path to Miami will test depth, poise, and coaching nerve. The playoff has never felt more open. And it has never felt more fun.
